A fire from the Hijaz seen at Busra
Sahih al-Bukhari 7118; Sahih Muslim 2902Sahih (al-Bukhari, Muslim)
“The Hour will not be established till a fire will come out of the land of Hijaz, and it will throw light on the necks of the camels at Busra.”Sahih al-Bukhari 7118, English translation as given on sunnah.com
What happened
In 654 AH (1256 CE) a volcanic eruption began in the Harrat Rahat lava field just southeast of Medina and lasted for weeks. Geologists date the lava flow to that year.
The Muslim case
Al-Nawawi, who lived through it, wrote that a very great fire appeared at Medina in 654 and that knowledge of it spread throughout Syria (quoted by IslamQA). Yaqeen Institute cites Ibn Hajar, Ibn Kathir and the eyewitness historian Abu Shama, who recorded reports that it was seen from far away.
Scope
This is among the clearest cases on dating: both collections were compiled in the ninth century, about four hundred years before the eruption. That the light reached Busra in Syria rests on reports gathered by those historians.
Fighting a people with small eyes and flat noses
Sahih al-Bukhari 2928; Sahih Muslim 2912Sahih (al-Bukhari, Muslim)
“The Hour will not be established until you fight with the Turks; people with small eyes, red faces, and flat noses. Their faces will look like shields coated with leather. The Hour will not be established till you fight with people whose shoes are made of hair.”Sahih al-Bukhari 2928, English translation as given on sunnah.com
What happened
From the 1210s to 1260 the Mongols and the steppe armies with them swept through Central Asia, Iran and Iraq, sacking Baghdad in 1258, until they were stopped at Ayn Jalut.
The Muslim case
Classical scholars including Ibn Taymiyya linked this report to the Tatars (Mongols), as OnlinePJ Fatwa explains; Islamic Evidence calls it one of the most precise prophecies. The fulfillment is the fighting itself, not a particular outcome.
Scope
'Turks' in early Arabic covered many steppe peoples. Muslims also fought Turkic peoples much earlier, in Central Asia, so the report has more than one historical match.
A sect that would pass through religion like an arrow
Sahih al-Bukhari 3610; Sahih Muslim 1064Sahih (al-Bukhari, Muslim)
“Leave him, for he has companions who pray and fast in such a way that you will consider your fasting negligible in comparison to theirs. They recite Qur'an but it does not go beyond their throats (i.e. they do not act on it) and they will desert Islam as an arrow goes through a victim's body ...”Sahih al-Bukhari 3610, English translation as given on sunnah.com
What happened
The Kharijites broke from Ali's army after Siffin and were defeated by him at Nahrawan in 658.
The Muslim case
In the same report the narrator Abu Sa'id testifies that he was with Ali when they fought them, and that the man with the deformed arm described in the hadith was found among the dead. Yaqeen Institute adds the version saying they would be fought by 'the closer of the two parties to the truth' (Muslim 1064).
Scope
The narrator's testimony forms part of the hadith itself.
Caliphate for thirty years, then kingship
Sunan Abi Dawud 4646; Jami at-Tirmidhi 2226Hasan sahih (al-Albani) for Abu Dawud 4646; hasan (Darussalam) for Tirmidhi 2226
“Al-Khilafah will be in my Ummah for thirty years, then there will be monarchy after that.”Jami at-Tirmidhi 2226, English translation as given on sunnah.com
What happened
Abu Bakr ruled about two years (632 to 634), Umar about ten, Uthman about twelve and Ali about five (to 661), with al-Hasan's months bringing the total close to thirty years. The Umayyad dynasty under Muawiya followed.
The Muslim case
The narrator Safinah himself counts the reigns in the report. Ibn al-Arabi, quoted by Yaqeen Institute, says the term neither exceeded nor fell short.
Scope
The count depends on including Ali and the months of al-Hasan, which is the Sunni reckoning.
The city on the Tigris (Abu Dawud 4306): the Baghdad reading
Sunan Abi Dawud 4306Hasan (al-Albani), as shown on sunnah.com
“Some of my people will alight on low-lying ground, which they will call al-Basrah, beside a river called the Tigris over which there is a bridge. ... At the end of time the descendants of Qantura' will come with broad faces and small eyes and alight on the bank of the river. The town's inhabitants will then separate into three sections ...”Sunan Abi Dawud 4306, English translation as given on sunnah.com
What happened
Baghdad, the Abbasid capital on the Tigris, was besieged and sacked by the Mongols under Hulagu in 1258.
The Muslim case
Mulla Ali al-Qari (Mirqat al-Mafatih), citing al-Ashraf, held that the city meant is Baghdad. His reasons: the Tigris runs through it, its bridge stands in its middle, and the name comes from Baghdad's well-known Basra Gate (Bab al-Basra) quarter, the whole named after a part. Later Muslim writers connect the broad-faced, small-eyed people with the Mongols.
Scope
This is a classical interpretation, not the plain wording, which says the place will be called al-Basrah, and Abu Dawud lists the report under the mention of Basra. Some scholars read it about Basra itself, and others leave the application open.